Zhao Long Interviewed by South China Morning Post

Zhao Long    source：South China Morning Post

Since Chinese container ships began regular services on the Northern Sea Route three years ago, the Arctic shipping lane has gained global importance. Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea later in 2023 disrupted traffic through the Suez Canal - the fastest route between Europe and Asia - in what was the most serious conflict-driven disruption since the Arab-Israeli war nearly six decades earlier.

The 5,600km Northern Sea Route spans Russia's Arctic coast, from the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait.

While it used to be impassable for most of the year, climate change is making it more accessible as the polar ice rapidly melts.

Russian oil and gas projects in the region, along with conflicts and piracy disrupting the Suez Canal, have boosted the appeal of the Arctic as an alternative route for Chinese firms.

It is also key to China's maritime strategy as the world's second-largest economy seeks a route free of Western chokepoints to ensure global connectivity in times of conflict or war.

"China's maritime strategy is not just linked to the South and East China Sea and Taiwan. It's also linked to the way it connects globally and how it [can] create a global connectivity," said Velina Tchakarova, a geopolitical strategist and founder of the Vienna-based consultancy FACE.

"Without [the Northern Sea Route], China will always face major risks of blockades, of interruptions, of turmoil for its own imports.

"So in that sense, [the route] is strategically important from China's perspective, and it's logical to me that it will invest in the facilitation, in building it up," she added.

The first Chinese cargo vessel sailed through the Northern Sea Route in 2013, operated by state-run Cosco Group. A decade later, private company New New Shipping started a regular service between China and Russia via the Arctic.

But it was the Istanbul Bridge, operated by Sea Legend, that drew attention to Chinese ships' use of the Northern Sea Route when it sailed from Ningbo to Felixstowe in the UK in October. The journey took just 20 days, or about half the time it would take using other sea routes.

More have followed. This summer, some 38 container ships are making the journey from Chinese ports to Russia or northern Europe through the Arctic passage, and around half of them will return the same way.

There were 17 Chinese commercial voyages through the Northern Sea Route last year.

The journey is much faster through the Arctic route - it takes around 30 days from China to St Petersburg or other European ports.

That compares to around 45 days via the Suez Canal or about 60 via the Cape of Good Hope, according to the latest shipping schedules.

The Northern Sea Route is only operational from July to October, and despite record transits in 2024 and 2025 it still sees only a fraction of the cargo that moves through the Suez Canal.

But disruptions to global shipping -from the pandemic to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks in the Red Sea, and tensions around other maritime chokepoints - have increased the strategic value of alternative routes.

Yun Sun, a senior fellow and director of the China programme at Washington-based think tank the Stimson Centre, said the Arctic route had "always been a project with significant potential for global trade, China and Russia" 

"With the Iran war and the disruption of shipping, alternative shipping routes are even more appealing than before," Sun said.

"The strategic value of [the Northern Sea Route] for China lies in it being an alternative shipping route that's not subject to US chokepoint strategy. Militarily, the Arctic offers the shortest travel time for missiles between the US and China.

"Geopolitical strategist Tchakarova noted that "60 to 70 per cent of trade is linked directly to the Indo-Pacific global supply chain that has been securitised, controlled and facilitated by the United States - and now it is disrupted at several hotspots".

"From China's-perspective, the fear of being blocked from getting critically important, vital commodities via the Indo-Pacific supply chain corridor was also part of the rationale for investing in the Northern Sea Route," she said.

For China, developing what it calls the Polar Silk Road as an alternative route is strategically important since 90 per cent of the country's trade is shipped by sea.

The transport ministry in July set up an information platform for the Northern Sea Route - including daily reports on ice and weather conditions - to help Chinese companies planning to use the Arctic passage.

Meanwhile, the Chinese and Russian governments are working to increase transits along the route. They have set up the Subcommittee on Arctic Waterway Cooperation and annual meetings are held between Russian company Rosatom -which manages the shipping lane's infrastructure and operations - and China's transport ministry.

"The strategic significance is to guarantee the resilience and diversification of China's export and supply chain security," said Zhao Long, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Marine and Polar Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

"China participating in the development of [the Northern Sea Route] is also part of China-Russia Arctic energy cooperation because the transport of all these energy products - especially liquefied natural gas [LNG] - needs to go through this route," Zhao said. "So this also has to do with China's energy supply security.

"Chinese state firms are stakeholders in Russia's two main Arctic energy projects,Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2.

The Northern Sea Route is emerging as an important part of the China-Russia partnership - an area where both countries can translate their broader strategic alignment into long-term cooperation on infrastructure, energy and shipping.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing in May, the two sides committed to expanding infrastructure and commercial navigation along the Northern Sea Route.

"For a long time, [China] has stressed energy development and scientific cooperation along the Northern Sea Route as a new growth point in the Sino-Russian relationship," Zhao said.

He added that the shipping lane was also "an important entry point for China's participation in the sustainable utilisation of the Arctic".

Russia is one of eight Arctic nations , along with Canada, Denmark, Finland , Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the United States. China declared itself a "near-Arctic state" in 2018 after securing observer status at the Arctic Council in 2013.

Zhao expected an increase in Chinese container shipping along the Northern Sea Route in the next few years, along with more scientific research in the region.

So far, Chinese polar research icebreakers and vessels have made 16 expeditions to the Arctic to conduct marine scientific research.

The Chinese and Russian coastguards also carried out a joint patrol in the Arctic Ocean for the first time in 2024.

Private Chinese shipping companies are taking advantage of the much shorter route between Asia and Europe to ship goods ranging from home appliances and electric cars to solar panels and energy storage units.

New New Shipping started the first regular container shipping service between China and Russia through the Arctic, which executive vice-president Wang Zheng said was becoming a viable alternative to other routes.

"Why is everyone paying so much attention to the Arctic [route] now? Because the Suez Canal was once blocked and then there were blockages in other sea areas- and there is also the threat of piracy in the Red Sea," Wang said.

"If you need to ship something from point A to point B, one route takes 37, 38 days and another takes only 25 days. When prices are similar, which one would you choose?”

Wang's firm has gone from being a forwarding agent in Russia to a shipping company as demand has grown.

Since its first sailing through the Northern Sea Route it has steadily expanded the number of Russian ports it works with.

The company is also upgrading its fleet and has signed an agreement with Rosatom to operate a year-round container line, which includes a joint venture to design and build specialised ships for the polar region.

It has also signed an agreement with Russian authorities to build a deepwater section of the Arkhangelsk port on the White Sea.

These projects are also vital for Russia as Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine have forced it to move away from European energy markets and look to Asia instead. The Russian economy relies heavily on oil and gas exports, and the Northern Sea Route -with no Western-dominated chokepoints - is central to that.

Russia was shipping crude oil via its Arctic sea route at a faster pace this year, Reuters reported lastweek. It said the volume of crude heading to Asia at the start of the navigation season was already at half the level shipped through the  Northern Sea Route for all of last year.

Putin has pitched the Arctic route as a new global transport corridor linking Europe and Asia , while Russian officials have touted it as a faster alternative to the Suez Canal.

Moscow had lofty goals for the shipping lane, but as Westerns anctions bite they are being revised down. Back in 2018, Putin's target was to reach an annual 80 million tonnes of cargo sent through the Arctic route by 2024. Total cargo volumes were at 37 million tonnes last year.

State-run Rosatom in June reduced the cargo target for 2030 to 70-109 million tonnes - almost half the original goal. Its 2035 target was also slashed to 150 million tonnes from 220-270 million tonnes.

Maksim Dankin, director general of Moscow-based think tank the Project Office for Arctic Development, said the targets were revised down mainly because of sanctions pressure.

But he said sanctions had also become "a powerful catalyst" for developing technologies and expanding cooperation with China and other countries.

"China is currently Russia's principal foreign partner in the development of the Northern Sea Route," said Dankin, who is also a member of the State Commission for Arctic Development.

"Chinese companies are building the container cargo base, launching new shipping services, and helping transform isolated pilot voyages into regular scheduled operations," he added.

Russia and China have made an agreement to increase bilateral cargo transport via the Northern Sea Route to 20 million tonnes by 2030.

Other Asian nations are also looking to the Arctic route. Russia signed a memorandum of understanding with India in July to train Indian sailors for polar navigation and possible co-development of Arctic ship building.

South Korea is also planning to conduct a trial voyage of a container vessel on the Busan-Rotterdam route via the Arctic passage in September. And Singapore , Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates have also expressed

interest in the route.

According to Tchakarova from FACE, the months-long Strait of Hormuz crisis was likely to prompt "even more push from Asian economies" to secure their energy."

[And] from what I am reading from statements and speeches on behalf of Putin and on behalf of the Russian cabinet, I think that now there is really a switch in the understanding that [Russia's] future lies in Asia," she said.