What sanctions are removed in Iran is critical

  2013/10/14 source：China.org.cn

After intensive diplomacy at the UN General Assembly, a new round of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program is due to take place in Geneva on Oct. 15 and 16. It will be the first since Iran's moderate President Hassan Rohani was inaugurated as president. Despite high expectations, the outcome might be only worthy of cautious optimism, due to the complexity of the issue.

Undoubtedly, the chances of a nuclear breakthrough have never been so high since both Iran and the U.S. have a strong impetus to move forward. While Iranians are eager to get the sanctions removed, Barack Obama's administration hopes to win back America's credibility in Iran, a dominant power in the region, while U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry hopes to score a signature victory in Middle East diplomacy.

However, high profile diplomacy does not necessarily cause change. The nuclear issue reflects the complicated history of U.S-Iran relations over more than three decades. A smile is far from sufficient to solve the problems.

It is predictable that the U.S. will blame Iran for being ill-prepared if the negotiations are not smooth at the beginning, which is highly likely. In fact, there have already been a lot of reports in the U.S. media claiming that Iran is not prepared for serious negotiations, and simply wants the sanctions on it removed. Scholars in Washington are talking about Iran cheating the system.

However, it is the U.S. not Iran that is holding the negotiations back. The reasons are numerous. Firstly is the sanctions problem. Ever since the Islamic revolution in 1979, the U.S. has imposed sanctions against Iran, a number of which have been passed by Congress as laws. Judging by the frequency and number of sanctions, their complexity is too great even for Iran experts to study.

Suppose Iran compromised, would the U.S. be willing and able to remove the sanctions in a meaningful way? Hassan Rohani's ambition is to resolve the issue within three to six months. He should be ready to make compromises, for instance, by increasing transparency in the nuclear program, but would the U.S. respond appropriately?

In the Almaty negotiation in February 2013, the U.S. did agree to remove sanctions on the trade of gold and other precious metals, aircraft parts, fuel for medical use and civilian nuclear technology cooperation. But this is far from what Iran has demanded. Ali Larijani, Iran's Majilis speaker, used to call it a piece of chocolate instead of diamond. Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif recently claimed that proposal at Almaty had gone into history, and the U.S. should put forward new proposals. He meant that the U.S. should remove some of the more significant sanctions, for example in the oil trade and banking system.

We can make a further bold prediction. Suppose that Iran was willing to compromise on all nuclear-related issues, and do whatever the U.S. says, would the U.S. be willing to remove all the sanctions? This would not be possible. Even if the White House wanted to do so, it would not able to, since many of the sanctions are laws passed by Congress, and the Republicans control the House of Representatives.

The role of Israel in U.S. policy on Iran should also be mentioned. The U.S., though usually labeled as a hegemonic, dominant superpower, is actually not as independent as many imagine. It is a public secret that its Middle East policy has been kidnapped by Israel. For legitimate or non-legitimate reasons, Netanyahu has been playing a very negative role in U.S.-Iran relations. His analogy of Hassan Rohani as a wolf in sheep's clothing has been very detrimental to U.S.-Iran relations. Any positive development in Iran nuclear issue could be easily sabotaged by Israel.

There are few reasons to be optimistic about the nuclear negotiations. Nevertheless, they should be indicative of the positive trends in U.S.-Iran relations. If the current state of relations is maintained, they might remain stable for one or two years, which would be a positive step.

Last but not least, it should not be expected that hostilities in the relations can be removed overnight. Both sides should try to maintain the positive trend. That should be the practical goal.