Zhao Long Interviewed by South China Morning Post

Zhao Long    source：South China Morning Post

Donald Trump’s renewed threats to take over Greenland could pose a direct challenge to China’s ambitions in the Arctic, but some observers say it may also open the door to increased cooperation with Europe.

Following the abduction of Venezuela’s former leader Nicolas Maduro, the White House swiftly turned its attention towards the self-governing Danish territory, adding that “of course, utilising the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal”.

On Sunday, the US president said he needed Greenland “right now” for national security reasons because there were “Russian and Chinese ships all over the place”.

Beijing has condemned the comments and urged Washington to uphold the principles of the United Nations Charter. Foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian also called on the US to “stop using the so-called China threat as a pretext to pursue its own interests”.

Greenland’s strategic importance lies in its position between Russia and the United States, while it also hosts large amounts of natural gas and minerals.

The melting of polar ice as a result of climate change is also opening up potentially lucrative sea routes through the Arctic that could significantly cut travel time between continents.

China’s race for inffuence in the Arctic 

China has joined the race for inffuence in the region, announcing plans for a “Polar Silk Road” in a 2018 white paperthat expressed its ambition to become a great polar power by 2030 and gain increased access to the region’s naturalresources.“US actions concerning Greenland and the broader Arctic region will no doubt affect China’s scientiffc research as wellas potential economic cooperation and development in the area,” said Zhang Xin, an associate professor ininternational relations from East China Normal University. 

He added: “The US position on Greenland does not appear to be mere rhetoric; rather, it reffects a serious anddeliberate strategic stance, suggesting Washington’s expansionist claims of control over Greenland are likely totranslate into actual policy. 

“In such circumstances, all relevant stakeholders, China included, face direct implications for scientiffc research andeconomic development in Greenland and the broader Arctic region. 

“The immediate impact is relatively manageable in the short run as China’s direct involvement in Greenland islimited, but the consequences could be signiffcant over the long run.” 

Marc Lanteigne, a professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway, also dismissed Trump’s commentsabout Chinese inffuence, saying: “Beijing has a negligible presence in Greenland, with many potential mining projectsinvolving Chinese ffrms either cancelled or on hold, and there has been no Chinese naval presence in and aroundGreenland.” 

He added: “Should the US continue to push for the annexation of Greenland, it will send Beijing a strong signal thatzero-sum thinking now predominates in the far north, and that China should take a more independent path towardsdeveloping [an] Arctic strategy.” 

Lanteigne said this would send a signal to the European Arctic that China might be a more “stable and reliablepartner” in regional development. 

Trump’s Greenland comments cause anxiety in Europe

Trump’s move to ratchet up the pressure has caused anxiety in Europe, with Copenhagen, which is responsible forGreenland’s foreign policy and defence, strongly rejecting Trump’s claims. 

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told Reuters this week that “we do not share this image thatGreenland is plastered with Chinese investments … nor that there are Chinese warships up and down alongGreenland”. 

Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain have all offered their support for Denmark, issuing a joint statementon Tuesday that said “Greenland belongs to its people” and emphasised the importance of the UN Charter, includingthe principles of “sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders”. 

Zhang said US calls to take over Greenland might further destabilise the transatlantic framework. 

“There is a real possibility that China and Europe could ffnd some shared interests regarding Greenland, such asopposing the expansionist logic of ‘American-style new imperialism’ and reafffrming the importance of a multilateralframework,” he added. 

Lanteigne said some European countries had developed “a quiet hedging strategy” towards China. 

“China is hoping to repackage the Polar Silk Road as a dependable development project in the north, as opposed to the‘Cold War thinking’ mindset in the Arctic which the US is portrayed as being stuck in,” he added. 

Zhao Long, a senior research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said China’s main focus in theregion was on scientiffc research, “with understanding the Arctic itself as the main priority”. 

China has built three research facilities in the Arctic in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, Sweden and Iceland. 

China also has observer status on the Arctic Council, a platform set up to discuss the governance of the region.

“This approach aligns with the consensus among Arctic states and represents China’s primary avenue forparticipating in Arctic affairs,” Zhao said. 

“Even if Greenland were controlled in a way that sought to exclude China and Russia, in practice this would have alimited effect. 

“Scientiffc research in the Arctic is a public good, and it is not possible to completely bar China from participating.”