Zhao Long Interviewed by South China Morning Post

Zhao Long    source： South China Morning Post

An inherent “asymmetry” of power poses a challenge to resolving South China Sea disputes via the quiet diplomacy traditionally favoured by Southeast Asian nations, a leading Malaysian security expert has said.

Chinese analysts said Beijing supported the “Asean way” too, so long as sovereignty claims were resolved bilaterally. They also warned against external interference and “power politics” standing in the way of consensus within the bloc.

Ruhanas Harun, an international relations professor at the National Defence University of Malaysia, said that Asean member states had turned to “quiet diplomacy” to resolve their maritime disputes.

“We’d rather talk quietly and find consensus because there are issues that you cannot publicly openly tell the world,” she told a maritime symposium in China’s southern Hainan province on Wednesday. “We try to negotiate first and reconcile what the country should present to the world.”

According to Harun, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations prefer to engage in dialogue at different negotiation levels – bilateral, multilateral and even minilateral – though she did not specify which disputes the mechanism had failed to address.

Boats at a dive site off Sipadan, an island over which Malaysia and Indonesia once had rival claims. Photo: Shutterstock

As an example, Harun cited the territorial dispute between Malaysia and Indonesia over the islands of Sipadan and Ligitan. The two countries agreed to bring the matter to the International Court of Justice and secured a resolution in 2002, which went in Malaysia’s favour.

However, that approach appeared to have stalled in South China Sea disputes becauseof the fundamental “asymmetry” between China, a major power, and the smallerclaimant states of Southeast Asia, the expert in security and law said.

“It’s very difffcult for small countries, not the entire Asean, to find a consensus anddiscuss with China,” Harun explained.

China and several of its neighbours, including Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines andVietnam, have competing territorial claims across the strategic waters. 

For decades, Beijing has been negotiating with the Asean, now an 11-member bloc, toreach a code of conduct for the South China Sea, with a goal of finalising it by mid2026.However, little concrete progress has been made.

Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, aBeijing-based think tank, argued that China was the “strongest supporter” of theAsean way of quiet diplomacy.

Hu, who also attended the symposium, said it was natural for smaller countries to bereluctant to negotiate bilaterally with big powers like China, but “on sovereigntyissues, there is no other choice but bilateral talks”. 

While Beijing was not opposed to resolving issues through arbitration orparticipation, a precondition would be that China must agree to the proceeding, headded. 

In 2016, in a case brought by the Philippines under the United Nations Convention onthe Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), an arbitration tribunal ruled that Beijing’s expansiveclaims in the South China Sea had no legal basis under international law.

China refused to take part in the legal proceeding and stated it would not recognisethe result. 

Other claimant states, as well as the United States and other Western countries, haveoften cited the case to claim that China did not abide by international law.

Hu said that from Beijing’s perspective, the case involved sovereignty and maritimedelimitation, and these matters were beyond the scope of UNCLOS’ adjudication, letalone that of the arbitration tribunal. 

Beijing could go to the International Court of Justice or UNCLOS, “but the key is thatChina must agree” to do so, he added. 

Zhao Long, who focuses on international strategy and security at the ShanghaiInstitutes for International Studies,a think tank, cautioned that external factorsposed the biggest challenge in resolving South China Sea disputes.

“External actors are trying to take clear sides on those sovereignty issues and tryingto interact with power politics. That could really endanger the ongoing process ofpeaceful management of the disputes,” Zhao said. “We should really let the regionalactors lead the process.” 

Beijing’s rivalry with Washington “further complicates things”, added Harun, whosaid the US had been another dominant player in Southeast Asia since the end of thesecond world war, “but nobody raised that issue”. 

She described Asean as facing a dilemma. “When you try to be nice, [and] friendlywith China, people immediately say, ‘why are you now being nice to China?’ But younever asked us if [we are] too nice to Australia and Japan, to the United States,” shesaid. 

The US maintains a strong presence in the strategic waters, conducting regular navaloperations with its partners.

In recent years, Washington has stepped up defence cooperation with the Philippines,a long-time treaty ally and a rival claimant to Beijing in a number of territorialdisputes in the South China Sea. 

In October, the US and the Philippines announced the establishment of a joint taskforce – the first of its kind in Southeast Asia – to further deter what US DefenceSecretary Pete Hegseth described as Chinese “coercion” in the South China Sea. 

Beijing has repeatedly accused the US of instigating tension and disturbing regionalpeace by staging military drills with the Philippines in the contested waters. Thisyear, the US has held multiple high-profile naval exercises with the Philippines in theSouth China Sea.

Zhang Yun, a professor specialising in security studies at Nanjing University, saidWashington’s interests in the South China Sea included freedom of navigation. 

“But what the US wants is more than just freedom of navigation,” Zhang told thesymposium on Wednesday. “It also includes freedom of navigation for its naval andair forces.” 

“Therefore, its claimed interest is not a simple South China Sea issue but rather alarger issue involving how the US defines its way of engaging with the world.” 

The two-day Symposium on Global Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance concluded on Thursday. It was co-hosted by China's NationalInstitute for South China Sea Studies - a government-affiliated think tankand research institute.