Li Hongmei Interviewed by South China Morning Post

Li Hongmei    source：South China Morning Post

Troops take part in a military parade during celebrations marking 70 years of thePeople’s Republic of China in 2019. Commentators say Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi is unlikely to attend China’s World War II victory parade in September. Photo:Xinhua 

A historian has called on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend China’s Victory Day parade in September. However, analysts believe this is highly unlikely.

Vijay Prashad, director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, a network of research institutes in the Global South, said he strongly suggested that Modi attend the parade in Beijing on September 3 and commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II with China and Russia.

“[China, India, and Russia] can hold a tripartite meeting and, by leveraging the power of Russia as an ally, effectively resolve the differences between China and India,” Prashad said during a live show hosted by Chinese media outlet Guancha.cn on July 26.

He also described the China-India border dispute as a “political issue” that was “solvable”.

However, observers said Modi was not likely to take part, despite the recent thaw in China-India relations.

Ivan Lidarev, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, said Modi’spresence at the parade would spark controversy back home. 

If Modi attends, he is likely to face accusations of “cosying up to India’s rivals”, according to Lidarev, who highlighted the Indianopposition’s persistent criticism of the prime minister’s China policy after a border deal in October. 

Earlier in July, India’s main opposition party called on Modi to agree to a full-fledged national dialogue in parliament to address mounting security and economic challenges posed by China, including those related to Beijing’s rare earth exports and special fertiliser restrictions.

The Indian National Congress party has also criticised the border deal as a compromise of India’s national interests and an undue concession to Beijing.

Modi’s appearance at the parade would be deemed “a grand, symbolic gesture that would drastically reset China-India relations”, Lidarev said. “The fact that relations have not improved to such a degree to permit a reset is a major reason why Prime Minister Modi is unlikely to be present.”

Further, Lidarev said that since the parade would commemorate China’s WWII victory over Japan, an Indian prime minister’s presence would be interpreted as “a major dig” at Japan, a key economic and strategic partner for India as well as fellow Quad members Australia and the United States.

“Attending such a parade often signifies the tacit or explicit acceptance of the host country’s historical narrative and the recognition that this country is an important partner or ally,” Lidarev said.

The potential attendance of major Pakistani leaders might also “complicate things”, he added.

It is not known if or when Modi plans to travel to China, but Li Hongmei, a research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies’ Centre for South Asian Studies,said attending the parade would not be a priority for Modi and was not a key indicator for assessing China-India relations.

What really mattered, she said, was whether Modi would attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin at the end of August.

The Kremlin has confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will join the summit as well as attend the parade in Beijing.

 

“If Modi personally attends the coming SCO summit, it will mark his sixth visit to China as prime minister,” Li said, noting that this would make him the most frequent visitor to China among all Indian prime ministers since independence in 1947. “This alone would send a positive political signal about improving bilateral relations.”

In an interview with Indian media in April, Chinese ambassador to New Delhi Xu Feihong said Modi was “warmly welcome to China” for the SCO summit this autumn.

But like Lidarev, Li too noted the need to heed domestic concerns.

“While Modi’s personal participation would certainly demonstrate stronger commitment to normalising bilateral ties and showcasing India’s dedication to world peace, his absence would hardly be surprising given the need to navigate India’s domestic political landscape and avoid criticism from opposition parties and China hawks,” she said.

Relations between the world’s two most populous countries have slowly improved in recent months. Last month, India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made his first trip to China in five years, where he announced that the two sides would restore direct flights for “facilitating people-to-people exchanges”, according to the Indian foreign ministry.

Last week, India resumed processing tourist visas for Chinese nationals for the first time since 2020, when a deadly border clash in a disputed Himalayan region and the Covid-19 pandemic led to the suspension of such services.

In another sign of thawing relations, China has allowed Indian pilgrims to return to the Tibet autonomous region, with the first group crossing the Himalayas into Tibet last month to visit sites that are sacred to many Hindus, Buddhists and other religions.

Still, tensions have simmered. Indian officials accused China of offering support to Pakistan after Islamabad claimed Chinese- made J-10C fighter jets were used against India’s air force in their four-day clash in early May.

Speaking at a defence industry event in New Delhi last month, Lieutenant General Rahul Singh, India’s deputy chief of army staff, said China had provided “all possible support” and that Pakistan was a “live laboratory” for testing China-made weapons.

China has rejected the claims, saying its cooperation with Pakistan did not target a third country.

Meanwhile, controversy over the 14th Dalai Lama’s succession has further complicated the China-India detente.

In July, senior Indian minister Kiren Rijiju stated that only the Dalai Lama – who lives in exile in India – and his established institution had the authority to decide his successor as the Tibetan spiritual leader.

The remarks, together with Modi’s birthday greetings to the Dalai Lama on social media days later, drew criticism from China twice within a week. Beijing also lodged a formal protest, asserting that the Dalai Lama’s succession must adhere to tradition and Chinese law while urging India to stop interfering in what it said were China’s domestic affairs.