Cai Liang Interviewed by Global Times

Cai Liang    source：Global Times

Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had called off his first visit to Japan and South Korea in early July to "focus on Middle East issues," Japanese media outlet Nikkei Asia reported. In response, Seoul's Foreign Ministry said that Rubio's visit to South Korea appears to be "difficult" to arrange in the near future. Was Rubio's cancellation merely a diplomatic hiccup, or could it become the trigger for a deeper erosion of trust between the US and its allies - and even the beginning of a "de-Americanization" process?

The Donald Trump administration has consistently embraced a unilateralist "America First" policy. While the current administration continues the "transactional alliance" approach adopted during Trump's first term, the core feature of this strategy is the reconstruction of traditional military alliances into cost-benefit "transactional cooperation." In practice, this means converting allies' strategic value into calculable "protection fees," evaluating security commitments through a financial lens. Both rivals and allies face the same rule: "sanctions are a must for cooperation," with no exceptions.

Since early 2025, the US has been brandishing the weapon of "reciprocal tariffs" across the globe. The message is explicit: Cooperate with me, and I'll sanction you a little less and might lower your tariffs. What is more important is that the US expects other countries to open their markets in sectors where it holds an advantage, such as agriculture, while implementing a "small yard, high fence" approach, using punitive tariffs to keep foreign goods out. For instance, Washington proposed 25 percent tariffs on imported automobiles and auto parts as well as steel and aluminum products, a devastating blow to auto industry powerhouses like Japan and South Korea.

What's more, as a 90-day freeze on country-specific US tariffs on dozens of nations, including Japan and South Korea, is scheduled to expire on July 9, the US on Monday set a 25 percent tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, as well as new tariff rates on a dozen other nations that would go into effect on August 1.

Under these circumstances, in the face of its big stick of tariffs, the "trade talks" with the US have devolved into damage-control exercises, focused solely on minimizing the pain of sanctions. But the asymmetric nature of Japan's and South Korea's alliance with the US means Tokyo and Seoul have virtually no room to bargain. As a result, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even described the situation as a "national crisis." Due to domestic political turmoil, South Korea has only engaged in a few technical talks with the US. Meanwhile, no progress has been made between Washington and Tokyo despite seven rounds of bilateral negotiations since April. The US continues pressuring Japan to open its rice market while refusing to ease tariffs on automobiles and steel and aluminum products.

Simultaneously, the US expects its allies to shoulder greater security burdens as it scales back its global military footprint. Washington has put forward many conditions that are difficult for Japan and South Korea to accept. It demands that Japan pay more for stationing US troops and reportedly asks it to raise its defense spending from less than 2 percent of GDP to 3.5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, South Korea has been asked to hike its defense budget to 5 percent of GDP (up from the current 2.3 percent level). These contradictory policies have severely eroded institutional cohesion and triggered visible cracks in US alliances with both countries.

Ishiba, for example, has publicly stated that "high tariffs will not bring economic prosperity" and "prosperity built on sacrifices by someone or another country will not make a strong economy." Last month, Japan even scrapped the planned July 1 "2+2" ministerial talks with the US after the Trump administration demanded it spend more on defense, the Financial Times reported.

As for US-South Korea relations, President Lee Jae-myung, in a press conference marking his first month in office, reiterated his commitment to a strong alliance with the US and close trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan. But he also emphasized the need to resume dialogue with North Korea and "swiftly improve" relations with China and Russia "through pragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests." The key point of his statement is to avoid South Korea becoming a victim between China and the US through the "pragmatic approach," and this political shift is stark compared to Seoul's previously lopsided alignment with Washington.

While reliance on the US alliance system will likely remain the cornerstone of Japan and South Korea's security and foreign policy for the foreseeable future, Washington's repeated overreach and hegemonic behavior have undeniably exposed fractures in these alliances. If this trajectory continues, it is only a matter of time before Tokyo and Seoul begin openly discussing the prospect of "de-Americanization."