Shao Yuqun：U.S. Election Will Have an Important Impact on China-U.S. Relations

Shao Yuqun    source：Council of Councils

Countries in the Indo-Pacific region are highly concerned about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. This vote will have a significant impact on the security and economic development of the region, and, in particular, will affect the development of the region’s most important bilateral relationship, between China and the United States, over the next four years.

 

Most Chinese researchers believe that the U.S. grand strategy toward China—containing China’s space for development to prevent it from challenging U.S. hegemony—has become the consensus of the Democratic and Republican parties, as well as the consensus of Congress and the executive branch. Regardless of who wins the presidency and controls Congress, the general direction of the next U.S. administration’s policy toward China seems all but certain. Despite this, the region is paying close attention to the outcome of these elections as they will have several concrete impacts on China-U.S. relations.

 

First, the policy teams that both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could select to shape their administrations’ postures on China-U.S. relations will be significant. While Trump’s views on China are widely known, we know less about Harris’s views. Her

 

China policy team is likely to be composed of personnel from the Barack Obama and Joe Biden administrations, while Trump’s China policy team is likely to include several “super hawks” on China.

 

Second, the policy priorities of Trump and Harris matter. Trump’s focus is undoubtedly on the economic and trade relationship between the two countries, and his rhetoric about imposing 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and eliminating China’s most-favored-nation (MFN) status for trade would truly decouple the economies of the two countries if it were translated into actual policy. So far, Harris has not given a comprehensive account of her foreign policy agenda, but we can anticipate a continuation of the Biden administration’s China policy, which places more emphasis on scientific and technological competition with China than on economic and trade relations. Differences in U.S. policy priorities affect China’s policy responses, for example, its agenda- setting, resource allocation, and domestic policy adjustments to the bilateral relationship, and, in turn, the future of the bilateral relationship.

 

Third, the political styles of a Trump or Harris administration are important. Trump has surrounded himself with super hawks that show a great distain for the Chinese Communist Party that is reflected in their communication style and word choices. Harris, if she continues Biden’s style, will likely be relatively restrained on this issue.

 

Therefore, it is not enough to generalize Trump’s and Harris’ policies toward China by saying that the difference between them is only bad and worse. A more nuanced analysis of the impact of the candidates’ policies on all areas of China-U.S. relations is needed now more than ever.