Zhou Yuyuan interviewed by SCMP

Zhou Yuyuan    source：SCMP

African leaders look to China for project funds and trade deals at Beijing summit

Dozens of African leaders are converging on the Chinese capital for a three-day summit that begins on Wednesday, aiming to secure funding for infrastructure projects and trade deals.

Among them, Kenyan President William Ruto is expected to renew a request for financing from Beijing to complete a section of a Chinese-funded railway linking Kenya to other nations in East Africa. Work stalled on that section – to Malaba, on the border with Uganda – five years ago as the two countries struggled to pay back their debts.

Meanwhile, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who began a state visit to China on Monday, will be looking to sign deals on trade and expanding market access, and Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is expected to sign new loan agreements with Beijing.

For its part, host Beijing is likely to use the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit to seek African support and strengthen ties amid its growing geopolitical rivalry with the United States and Europe.

David Shinn, a China-Africa specialist and professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said the visiting African leaders would also push China to take more of their exports both to diversify and to address large trade deficits.

He expected the African officials to also seek more technology transfers from China and more investment, especially in the manufacturing sector.

In addition, “African countries that are deeply indebted to China will seek better terms on outstanding loans”, Shinn said.

The summit is held every three years. Photo: Reuters

China’s foreign ministry has said four meetings will be held during the summit – on state governance, industrialisation and agricultural modernisation, peace and security, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

The summit, held every three years, is a key platform for China to engage with Africa and has previously seen Beijing making huge financial pledges to support big-ticket infrastructure projects. Many African leaders attend the event, looking to win deals and discuss issues affecting both sides.

China has been Africa’s largest trading partner for more than a decade. It has also extended loans of more than US$182 billion to African nations between 2000 and 2023 that have gone towards building mega projects such as ports, railways, highways and hydroelectric dams.

Some of those investments have been made in countries hit by coups, such as Niger, Sudan and Guinea, and China has also sought more of a role in trying to resolve civil wars and conflicts on the continent.

Shinn said he expected Beijing to push for African support for its global stance and acceptance of its policies on domestic issues such as human rights, as well as the South China Sea. He said China would also be looking for a realignment of its economic relationship with Africa to one that relies less on large loans and more on Chinese investment in Africa.

“China will also emphasise green energy cooperation, training and capacity-building initiatives, and steps to improve security for Chinese personnel and interests in Africa,” Shinn said.

Frangton Chiyemura, a lecturer on global development at the Open University UK, said there was a shift from focusing on the quantity of Chinese loans to emphasising the quality of projects and their benefits.

“This will likely result in a greater Chinese involvement in Africa’s energy sector, particularly in renewable energy projects such as wind and solar. The expansion of China’s footprint in the renewable energy industry is closely linked to the critical minerals sector,” Chiyemura said.

In addition, he said that in places hit by conflicts, China could “increasingly play a role in mediating or acting as intermediaries in these conflicts, especially in countries where their interests and projects are at risk”.

Tim Zajontz, a research fellow in the Centre for International and Comparative Politics at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University, said industrialisation and agricultural upgrades remained the top priorities for African countries.

“This year’s summit declaration and the action plan will reiterate China’s commitment to support the diversification of African economies and to address persistent trade imbalances,” said Zajontz, who is also an international relations lecturer at the University of Freiburg.

He also expected Beijing to seek support for its Global Security Initiative, which sets out its principles for managing conflicts and seeking peace, “and to further advance cooperation with African governments and the African Union in the security realm”.

Zajontz noted that Africa’s geopolitical importance had increased since the last FOCAC summit.

“The growing number of high-level summits between Africa and other world regions or specific countries is but one proof of this trend,” he said.

Amid the intensifying competition for political and economic influence on the continent, Beijing would be looking to this week’s talks as “positive reinforcement of China’s special partnership status for Africa”, he added.

That competition includes the Group of Seven’s US$600 billion Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment – a challenge to China’s belt and road strategy.

“Beijing also sees African governments and regional organisations as important allies in its demands for more inclusive, less Western-dominated institutions and modalities of global governance,” Zajontz said.

According to Lina Benabdallah, an associate professor in the politics and international affairs department at Wake Forest University in the US, China will be looking to cement its partnership with African countries – especially given Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House.

“[Trump’s] record with tariffs and containment of Chinese goods and products suggests that Beijing will proactively be looking for other markets to sell a lot of its products that would otherwise be earmarked for the US or European markets,” Benabdallah said.

“African markets are ideal for this and the timing of the summit could not be more on point.”

She said Beijing was likely to try to boost sales of electric vehicles and other products that are not selling in the US or Europe.

Zhou Yuyuan, a professor and deputy director of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies’ Centre for West Asian and African Studies, also expected a shift in focus to green and low-carbon development cooperation.

On the debt burdens faced by African nations, Zhou said “China may clarify its position on debt issues and put forward complementary initiatives”.

He said development financing would move towards “small and beautiful” projects.

At the last FOCAC summit in 2021, Beijing promised US$40 billion in financial support – much lower than the US$60 billion pledged at the 2018 and 2015 meetings.